During the first three months of the season that started on July 1, French soft wheat exports to Spain have fallen by 44 percent.
FranceAgriMer left its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the bloc unchanged from last month at 8.75 million tonnes as it awaited a clearer picture on potential damage from torrential rains in Argentina, which is competing with France in some of its key export markets such as Algeria.
Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer's grains and sugar unit, also noted that the price difference between the two origins had shrunk with Argentine wheat currently trading at $8-10/tonne for shipment in December/January, down from $20/tonne last month.
"We are at a turning point in the campaign. What will set the tone will be the arrival of Argentine wheat on the world market and the expected rise in US wheat exports," Zribi told reporters.
Exports outside the EU in the first four months of the season until the end of October were 35 percent above the year-earlier volume, the office said.
FranceAgriMer increased its forecast of soft wheat ending stocks to 2.5 million tonnes from 2.4 million tonnes forecast last month.
FranceAgriMer left its forecast of French 2018/19 maize ending stocks unchanged from last month at 2.0 million tonnes.
This was due to a 100,000 rise in its estimate for the delivered maize crop to 10.45 million tonnes, that was compensated by higher sales to other EU countries.
Maize exports within the bloc were now estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, against 4.1 million pegged in October, but still 14 percent below last year. The drop is linked to transport problems in northern Europe, where Rhine water levels have been extremely low, and a drop in demand from Spain.
FranceAgriMer left its forecast for French 2018/19 barley ending stocks unchanged from last month, at 1.1 million tonnes.